The risk of bonds varies with maturity because the possibility of gains
and losses varies with the length of time interest and principal
payments are exposed to market rate fluctuations.
Because the value of the remaining stream of payments varies with
changes in interest rates, longer maturity bonds fluctuate more than
shorter maturity bonds for a given change in rates.
This fluctuation is measured by duration, a more precise calculation of
the "effective life" of an investment. Compared to maturity, which only
deals with the date when the principal is finally repaid, duration also
reflects the amount and frequency of all payments, as well as today's
price. Duration is an estimate of a bond or bond fund's sensitivity to
interest rate changes.
Interest Rates
Credit quality is a major factor in determining a bond's stated interest
rate. Independent rating agencies, such as Moody's Investors Service and
Standard & Poor's Corp., rate bonds according to the issuer's financial
health and ability to make interest payments and repay the principal in
full at maturity.
Standard & Poor's corporate bond ratings are scaled from AAA (the
highest rating) to D (the lowest rating). Bonds known as "investment
grade" are generally those rated BBB or better. Below investment grade
(also known as "high yield" or "junk bonds") are generally rated BB or
lower.
Investment grade bonds tend to be safer and generally offer lower
interest rates than below-investment-grade bonds. Issuers with lower
credit ratings are perceived as more risky and must offer their bonds at
a higher interest rate to attract investors.
Risks
Although the stock market is generally considered more volatile, bonds
carry their own forms of risk. The most significant ones are
interest-rate risk and credit-quality risk.
Generally, the higher the risk the larger the yield, or return, to the
investor. For example, U.S. Treasury bonds, backed by the
creditworthiness of the United States, pay lower yields than bonds
issued by corporations with a less creditworthy reputation. When you
accept high yields and low credit quality, you risk seeing the bond
issuer default on their bond obligations.
Credit rating agencies, such as Standard & Poor's or try to define bond
issuers by their ability to pay their bondholders on schedule. Those
most likely to make good on their obligations are rated AAA. However,
rating an issuer's creditworthiness is not an exact science and rating
agencies can be wrong.
The biggest risk of a bond investment is if the issuer goes bankrupt,
the loan may not get paid back at all. In bankruptcy cases, bank lenders
have the first claim on any assets that the bankrupt company may have.
But bondholders have a higher claim than stockholders, which is one
reason bonds are generally less risky than stocks.
When interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall. This means that
bonds particularly longer-term bondsare highly susceptible
in economic climates with rising interest rates. If your investment
portfolio is heavily weighted with bonds, you could watch your nest egg
shrink significantly during some periods. If rates rise and you try to
sell a bond before it matures, you will find that the bond's price on
the open market has fallen below what you paid for it. You would lose
some of your original investment if you went ahead and sold it.